 Results of NurOwn(TM) Clinical Trial Suggest Efficacy in ALS PatientsData Indicate Initial Clinical Benefit in Overall Clinical and Respiratory Function
BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics ( OTCQB : BCLI ), a leading developer of adult stem cell technologies for neurodegenerative diseases, today reported some of the final results from a clinical study evaluating the company's NurOwn™ technology in 12 ALS patients. NurOwn is a proprietary, first-of-its-kind technology for the propagation and differentiation of autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSCs) into NeuroTrophic Factor (NTF)-secreting cells. The data were presented yesterday, Wednesday, March 20, 2013 during the 65th Annual Meeting of the American Academy of Neurology (AAN) in San Diego, California.
An oral and poster presentation were made in the Emerging Science Session by Principal Investigator Dimitrios Karussis, M.D., Ph.D., entitled, "Analysis of 12 Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) Treated with Autologous Differentiated Mesenchymal Stem Cells: a Phase I/II Clinical Trial." Karussis reported a significantly slower decline in overall clinical and respiratory function, as measured by the ALS Functional Rating Score (ALSFRS-R) and Forced Vital Capacity (FVC) score respectively, in the six patients that received an intrathecal (IT) injection of the cells in the six months following treatment, as compared to the three months preceding treatment. The study concluded that in addition to establishing the safety of the treatment protocol, initial indications of clinical benefit were observed, which require further confirmation in additional trials. The company is currently conducting a Phase IIa dose-escalating trial pursuant to recent acceleration by the Israeli Ministry of Health."These encouraging results confirm the importance and therapeutic potential of NurOwn as a breakthrough treatment for patients with ALS," said Prof. Karussis, Head of the Neuroimmunology Laboratory, Department of Neurology, Hadassah Medical Center, Jerusalem. "Additionally, beyond its benefit in treating patients with ALS, NurOwn may have utility in the treatment of other severe neurodegenerative and neuroimmunological conditions including multiple sclerosis and Parkinson's disease." "We are excited by these data and the potential of NurOwn to positively impact the lives of patients with ALS," said Alon Natanson, Chief Executive Officer of BrainStorm. "We look forward to continuing to advance this potentially important therapy. To that end, we have begun a Phase IIa dose-escalating trial at Hadassah and plan to launch a multi-center Phase II trial in the USA later this year in order to further validate the results that were presented today." About NurOwn™NurOwn is an autologous, adult stem cell therapy technology that differentiates bone marrow-derived mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) into specialized, neuron-supporting cells. These neuron-supporting cells (known as "MSC-NTF" cells) secrete neurotrophic, or nerve-growth, factors for PROTECTION of existing motor neurons, PROMOTION of motor neuron growth, and RE-ESTABLISHMENT of nerve-muscle interaction. The ability to differentiate mesenchymal stem cells into MSC-NTF cells, and confirmation of their activity and potency before transplantation, makes NurOwn a first-of-its-kind approach for treating neurodegenerative diseases. More information about NurOwn™ can be found at http://brainstorm-cell.com/index.php/science-a-technology/-nurown. About ALSOne of the most common neuromuscular diseases worldwide, Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), sometimes called Lou Gehrig's disease, is a rapidly progressive, invariably fatal neurological disease that attacks the nerve cells responsible for controlling voluntary muscles. As many as 30,000 people in the United States have ALS and an estimated 5,000 Americans are newly diagnosed each year. The disease belongs to a group of disorders known as motor neuron diseases, which are characterized by the gradual degeneration and death of motor neurons. There is currently no cure available for ALS. About BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics, Inc.BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc. is a biotechnology company engaged in the development of first-of-its-kind adult stem cell therapies derived from autologous bone marrow cells for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases. The Company holds the rights to develop and commercialize its NurOwn technology through an exclusive, worldwide licensing agreement with Ramot, the technology transfer company of Tel Aviv University. For more information, visit the company's website at www.brainstorm-cell.com. Safe Harbor Statement - Statements in this announcement other than historical data and information constitute "forward-looking statements" and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc.'s actual results to differ materially from those stated or implied by such forward-looking statements. Terms and phrases such as "may", "should", "would", "could", "will", "expect", "likely", "believe", "plan", "estimate", "predict", "potential", and similar terms and phrases are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. The potential risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, risks associated with BrainStorm's limited operating history, history of losses; minimal working capital, dependence on its license to Ramot's technology; ability to adequately protect the technology; dependence on key executives and on its scientific consultants; ability to obtain required regulatory approvals; and other factors detailed in BrainStorm's annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q available athttp://www.sec.gov. These factors should be considered carefully, and readers should not place undue reliance on BrainStorm's forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this press release are based on the beliefs, expectations and opinions of management as of the date of this press release. We do not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect actual results or assumptions if circumstances or management's beliefs, expectations or opinions should change, unless otherwise required by law. Although we believe that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, levels of activity, performance or achievements.
Contact:
CONTACTSBrainStorm Cell Therapeutics Inc.
Mr. Alon Natanson CEO Phone: +972-3-9236384 info@brainstorm-cell.com www.brainstorm-cell.com LifeSci Advisors, LLC Michael Rice, Founding Partner 646-597-6979 mrice@lifesciadvisors.com www.LifeSciAdvisors.com _______________________________________ IntroductionInvestor Presentation – March 2013BrainStorm Cell Therapeutics (OTC.QB: BCLI) is a biotechnology company developing innovative, autologous stem cell therapies for highly debilitating neurodegenerative diseases such as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS, also known as Lou Gehrig's disease), Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and Parkinson’s Disease (PD). NurOwn™, our proprietary, first-of-its-kind technology for the propagation and differentiation of autologous Mesenchymal Stem Cells (MSCs) into NeuroTrophic Factor (NTF)-secreting cells and their transplantation at or near the site of damage, offers the hope of conquering neurodegenerative diseases. We are currently conducting a Phase IIa ALS clinical trial with NurOwn at the Hadassah University Medical Center in Jerusalem. In this safety and preliminary efficacy trial, 12 patients will receive combined intramuscular and intrathecal administration of NurOwn cells in three cohorts with increasing doses. The study participants will be followed for three to six months after transplantation. The company also plans to begin a Phase II clinical trial in the USA in 2013, pending FDA approval. In February 2011, NurOwn was granted Orphan Drug designation by the FDA. Over 20 publications in leading scientific journals demonstrating NurOwn's mechanism of action, pharmacology and in vivo efficacy have been published by the scientific team. MissionBrainStorm is developing autologous, adult stem cell therapies to treat a variety of debilitating neurodegenerative diseases, such as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS, or Lou Gehrig's Disease), Parkinson's Disease (PD), and Multiple Sclerosis (MS).Our approach uses the patient's own bone marrow to generate specialized NeuroTrophic Factor (NTF)-secreting cells, which are then transplanted into the spine or muscles, to protect existing motor neurons, promote new motor neuron growth, and re-establish nerve-muscle interaction. We are committed to developing an effective treatment that will overcome the devastating effects of neurodegenerative disease. Stem Cell Therapy
Stem Cell therapies are one of the most promising areas of medicine today.
Management TeamThe aim of cell therapy is to support and repair damaged tissues and organs by providing healthy stem cell transplants. Bone marrow stem cell transplants for replacement and restoration of the haemopoietic system (blood and lymph) of cancer patients have been successfully used for the past 20 years. Stem cells are generally described as cells that are capable of both self-renewal and differentiation. Stem cells have the ability to undergo asymmetric division such that one of the two daughter cells retains the properties of the stem cell, while the other begins to differentiate into a more specialized cell type. Stem cells are therefore central to normal human growth and development and a potential source of new cells for the regeneration of diseased and damaged tissue. BrainStorm is developing cellular therapeutics based on stem cell technologies. The medical benefits afforded by stem cell therapies offer hope to millions of patients suffering from many types of neuro-degenerative diseases such as Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS, often referred to as Lou Gehrig's Disease), Parkinson’s disease (PD), and Multiple Sclerosis (MS). Chaim Lebovits President Alon Natanson, MBA CEO Adrian Harel, Ph.D. Director of R&D Liat Sossover, CPA, MBA CFO Prof. Eldad Melamed, M.D. Chief Medical Advisor Prof. Daniel Offen, Ph.D. Chief Scientific Advisor Our Partners Our PartnersAt BrainStorm we’re interested in exploring strategic partnerships that will further our clinical and technological goals. These academic and clinical collaborations with leading scientific and medical investigators, as well as technological alliances with biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies.We're proud to be partnering today with a leading university medical center and an innovative technology company in the areas of clinical and technology development:
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Company Address
Brainstorm Cell Therapeutics Inc.
605 Third Avenue 34th Floor New York, NY 10158 United States - Map Phone: 646-666-3188 Website: http://www.brainstorm-cell.com |  Share Structure
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 Contact James S. Painter III Emerging Markets Consulting LLC 10724 High Crest Court Howey In The Hills Florida 34737 Office 321-206-6682 Fax 352-429-0691 www.emergingmarketsllc.com www.themicrocapreport.com
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Thursday, March 21, 2013
Results of NurOwn(TM) Clinical Trial Suggest Efficacy in ALS Patients
Thursday, August 23, 2012
Questions to Ask Yourself Before Retiring By Jeanine Skowronski
What Kind of Lifestyle Do I Want in Retirement?
Several studies have tried to pinpoint how much money people should specifically have on hand before they retire. The truth is, though, that this amount is going to vary dramatically depending on what type of lifestyle you’re looking to lead once you’ve left the workforce.
“Your entire financial plan is going to stem from that vision,” says Suzanna de Baca, vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial. She suggests considering where you see yourself residing, whether or not you plan to get another job during retirement and how you plan on spending your free time.
“Free time is very expensive,” agrees Diana Palmer, a certified public accountant with Family Financial Planning. “If you like to travel, your budget needs to be set much higher.”
Will My Debts Be Paid Off?
Unpaid debts will contribute to your monthly expenses and play a huge part in how much money you will need to have on hand before you go ahead and leave the workforce. This is not to say that your house needs to be paid off in full before you retire.
“If you have a low interest rate [on your mortgage], you’ll have to ask, ‘Do I want to pay this off in full?’” Kinsey says. On the other hand, if the mortgage is more substantial, you may want to consider taking money out of your investment portfolio so you don’t have to worry about it moving forward. The point is, whichever option you do chose will have significant impact on your cash flow.
If you have other debts on the books, such as high credit card balances, you may want to look into what other factors may be behind the balances so you can get them paid off as much as possible before you abandon a steady paycheck.
Retirement Questions
Pulling the trigger on retirement can be a costly mistake if your finances aren’t in good shape.
“It’s a very uncertain time for people,” says Doug Kinsey, a certified financial planner with Artifex Financial Group. Luckily, there are steps you can take to make yourself feel more secure as you approach retirement age. How can you tell if you’re ready to retire the way you imagined? Here’s a checklist of questions every pre-retiree should examine.
less
What Kind of Lifestyle Do I Want in Retirement?
Several studies have tried to pinpoint how much money people should specifically have on hand before they retire. The truth is, though, that this amount is going to vary dramatically depending on what type of lifestyle you’re looking to lead once you’ve left the workforce.
“Your entire financial plan is going to stem from that vision,” says Suzanna de Baca, vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial. She suggests considering where you see yourself residing, whether or not you plan to get another job during retirement and how you plan on spending your free time.
“Free time is very expensive,” agrees Diana Palmer, a certified public accountant with Family Financial Planning. “If you like to travel, your budget needs to be set much higher.”
less
Will My Debts Be Paid Off?
Unpaid debts will contribute to your monthly expenses and play a huge part in how much money you will need to have on hand before you go ahead and leave the workforce. This is not to say that your house needs to be paid off in full before you retire.
“If you have a low interest rate [on your mortgage], you’ll have to ask, ‘Do I want to pay this off in full?’” Kinsey says. On the other hand, if the mortgage is more substantial, you may want to consider taking money out of your investment portfolio so you don’t have to worry about it moving forward. The point is, whichever option you do chose will have significant impact on your cash flow.
If you have other debts on the books, such as high credit card balances, you may want to look into what other factors may be behind the balances so you can get them paid off as much as possible before you abandon a steady paycheck.
less
How Will I Pay for Health Care?
All of the financial advisers we spoke with reiterated the importance of factoring in health insurance premiums and prescription drug costs when deciphering how much money you will need in retirement.
Additionally, under federal law, most Americans are not eligible for Medicare until they are 65 or older, so if you’re looking to retire before then you will need to determine where your health care coverage would be coming from and then factor that plan’s cost into your overall budget.
You’ll also need to ask yourself how you plan to address your long-term care expenses, says Joe Alfonso, a certified financial planner with Aegis Financial Advisory.
“It’s not just about buying the insurance,” he says. “But you need to ask, ‘Do I plan on moving in with my children? Do I expect my spouse to be able to fulfill that need?’”
What Sources of Income Will I Have?
Of course, the second part of the equation involves looking at the sources of income you’ll have available upon retiring, Kinsey says. This can include could Social Security benefits, which you are eligible to receive – at least in part – at age 62. It could also include a pension you may have earned, paychecks produced from a potential second career or the revenue generated by your investment portfolio.
Retirement Questions
Pulling the trigger on retirement can be a costly mistake if your finances aren’t in good shape.
“It’s a very uncertain time for people,” says Doug Kinsey, a certified financial planner with Artifex Financial Group. Luckily, there are steps you can take to make yourself feel more secure as you approach retirement age. How can you tell if you’re ready to retire the way you imagined? Here’s a checklist of questions every pre-retiree should examine.
less
What Kind of Lifestyle Do I Want in Retirement?
Several studies have tried to pinpoint how much money people should specifically have on hand before they retire. The truth is, though, that this amount is going to vary dramatically depending on what type of lifestyle you’re looking to lead once you’ve left the workforce.
“Your entire financial plan is going to stem from that vision,” says Suzanna de Baca, vice president of wealth strategies at Ameriprise Financial. She suggests considering where you see yourself residing, whether or not you plan to get another job during retirement and how you plan on spending your free time.
“Free time is very expensive,” agrees Diana Palmer, a certified public accountant with Family Financial Planning. “If you like to travel, your budget needs to be set much higher.”
less
Will My Debts Be Paid Off?
Unpaid debts will contribute to your monthly expenses and play a huge part in how much money you will need to have on hand before you go ahead and leave the workforce. This is not to say that your house needs to be paid off in full before you retire.
“If you have a low interest rate [on your mortgage], you’ll have to ask, ‘Do I want to pay this off in full?’” Kinsey says. On the other hand, if the mortgage is more substantial, you may want to consider taking money out of your investment portfolio so you don’t have to worry about it moving forward. The point is, whichever option you do chose will have significant impact on your cash flow.
If you have other debts on the books, such as high credit card balances, you may want to look into what other factors may be behind the balances so you can get them paid off as much as possible before you abandon a steady paycheck.
less
How Will I Pay for Health Care?
All of the financial advisers we spoke with reiterated the importance of factoring in health insurance premiums and prescription drug costs when deciphering how much money you will need in retirement.
Additionally, under federal law, most Americans are not eligible for Medicare until they are 65 or older, so if you’re looking to retire before then you will need to determine where your health care coverage would be coming from and then factor that plan’s cost into your overall budget.
You’ll also need to ask yourself how you plan to address your long-term care expenses, says Joe Alfonso, a certified financial planner with Aegis Financial Advisory.
“It’s not just about buying the insurance,” he says. “But you need to ask, ‘Do I plan on moving in with my children? Do I expect my spouse to be able to fulfill that need?’”
less
What Sources of Income Will I Have?
Of course, the second part of the equation involves looking at the sources of income you’ll have available upon retiring, Kinsey says. This can include could Social Security benefits, which you are eligible to receive – at least in part – at age 62. It could also include a pension you may have earned, paychecks produced from a potential second career or the revenue generated by your investment portfolio.
less
Do I Want to Leave Money to My Loved Ones?
“People need to think about legacy planning,” de Baca says, explaining that those looking to leave money or assets to their next of kin end up writing a very different budget than someone who has no plan to do so.
As such, you may want to write out a will before formally leaving the workforce since it could actually delay your retirement or affect the lifestyle you adopt after you do so.
How Much Cash Flow Do I Need for My Desired Lifestyle?
After you’ve considered your vision for retirement and calculated your expenses, you should come up with the ideal amount of money you would need coming in to support that lifestyle. Palmer says every prospective retiree should ask themselves this crucial question: If you were to retire today, what check would you like to see in your mailbox each month?
“Once we know that number, we work out if that lifestyle is plausible,” she says.
Will My Assets Cover This Lifestyle?
After you’ve determined what your ideal retirement paycheck would be, you need to see if you will have enough money on hand to generate it.
“Depending on that answer, decisions have to be made,” Alfonso says. “If you don’t have enough money, there needs to be a trade-off.”
This could include delaying retirement, spending less, downsizing your home, moving to another state or adjusting your lifestyle requirements.
“Saving more isn’t always the best option due to the time constraints,” Alfonso says.
Do I Need to Make Changes to My Investment Portfolio?
As you near retirement, you may also want to make some adjustments to the investment portfolio you’re hoping will power it. This could involve switching to more conservative stock or bond options, but it doesn’t have to, Kinsey says.
“You need to ask yourself: ‘How conservative can I be and still reach my goals?’” he says. “This doesn’t mean you have to run to bonds. You can move to an asset-deduction model that makes sure you have enough [money] to cover the income gap and then invest for growth.”
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Changes Tough, but Social Security Fixable
Social Security's financial problems could be solved with modest but politically tough changes
By Stephen Ohlemacher, Associated Press | Associated Press – Mon, Aug 20, 2012 3:06 AM EDT
Despite Social Security's long-term problems, the massive retirement and disability program could be preserved for generations to come with modest but politically difficult changes to benefits or taxes, or a combination of both.
Some options could affect people quickly, such as increasing payroll taxes or reducing annual cost-of-living adjustments for those who already get benefits. Others options, such as gradually raising the retirement age, wouldn't be felt for years but would affect millions of younger workers.
All of the options carry political risks because they have the potential to affect nearly every U.S. family while raising the ire of powerful interest groups. But the sooner changes are made, the more subtle they can be because they can be phased in slowly. Each year lawmakers wait, Social Security's financial problems loom larger and the need for bigger changes becomes greater, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.
"Certainly, in the current environment, it would be very difficult to get changes made," Social Security's commissioner, Michael J. Astrue, said in an interview. "It doesn't mean that we shouldn't try. And sometimes when you try hard things, surprising things happen."
Social Security is ensnared in the same debate over taxes and spending that has gripped Washington for years. Liberal advocates and some Democrats say benefit cuts should be off the table. Conservative activists and some Republicans say tax increases are out of the question.
Others, including a deficit commission created by President Barack Obama in 2010, have called for a combination of tax increases and cuts to future benefits, including raising the retirement age again.
Janice Durflinger of Lincoln, Neb., is still working at age 76, running computer software programs for a bank. Still, she worries that a higher retirement age would be tough on people with more physically demanding jobs.
"No matter how much you exercise, age takes its toll," Durflinger said.
But at 20, Jared Macher of Manalapan, N.J., worries that Social Security won't be around for his generation without major changes.
"My generation sees Social Security as a tax, not an investment," Macher said.
Social Security's finances are being hit by a wave of demographics as millions of baby boomers reach retirement, leaving relatively fewer workers behind to pay into the system. About 56 million people get benefits today; that is projected to grow to 91 million in 2035.
For nearly three decades Social Security produced big surpluses, collecting more in taxes from workers than it paid in benefits to retirees, disabled workers, spouses and children.
But Social Security trustees project that the surplus, now valued at $2.7 trillion, will be gone in 2033. At that point, Social Security would only collect enough tax revenue each year to pay about 75 percent of benefits, unless Congress acts.
After the surplus is spent, the gap between scheduled benefits and projected tax revenue is big.
Social Security uses a 75-year window to forecast its finances, so the projections cover the life expectancy of every worker paying into the system. Once Social Security's surplus is gone, the program is scheduled to pay out $134 trillion more in benefits than it will collect in taxes over the next 75 years, according to data from the agency. Adjusted for inflation, that's $30.5 trillion in 2012 dollars.
The options for closing the gap fall into two broad categories: cutting benefits or raising taxes. There are, however, many options within each category.
The AP used data from the Social Security Administration to calculate how much of the shortfall would be eliminated by various options. To illustrate how Social Security's long-term finances have become worse in the past two years, the AP also calculated the share of the shortfall that would have been eliminated, if the options had been adopted in 2010.
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Taxes
Social Security is financed by a 12.4 percent tax on wages. Workers pay half and their employers pay the other half. The tax is applied to the first $110,100 of a worker's wages, a level that increases each year with inflation. For 2011 and 2012, the tax rate for employees was reduced to 4.2 percent, but is scheduled to return to 6.2 percent in January.
Options:
—Apply the Social Security tax to all wages, including those above $110,100. Workers making $200,000 in wages would get a tax increase of $5,574, an amount their employers would have to match. Their future benefits would increase, too. This option would eliminate 72 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have wiped out 99 percent.
—Increase the payroll tax by 0.1 percentage point a year, until it reaches 14.4 percent in 20 years. At that point, workers making $50,000 a year would get a tax increase of $500 and employers would have to match it. This option would eliminate 53 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have wiped out 73 percent.
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Retirement age
Workers qualify for full retirement benefits at age 66, a threshold that gradually rises to 67 for people born in 1960 or later. Workers are eligible for early retirement at 62, though monthly benefits are reduced by about 25 percent. The reductions shrink the longer you wait to apply.
Options:
—Gradually raise the full retirement age to 68 in 2033. This option would eliminate 15 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have eliminated a little more than 20 percent.
—Gradually raise the full retirement age to 69 in 2039 and 70 in 2063. This option would eliminate 37 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have eliminated about half.
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Cost-of-living adjustments
Each year, if consumer prices increase, Social Security benefits go up as well. By law, the increases are pegged to an inflation index. This year, benefits went up by 3.6 percent, the first increase since 2009.
Option: Adopt a new inflation index called the Chained CPI, which assumes that people change their buying habits when prices increase to reduce the impact on their pocketbooks. The new index would reduce the annual COLA by 0.3 percentage point, on average. This option would eliminate 19 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have eliminated 26 percent.
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Benefits
Initial Social Security benefits are determined by lifetime wages, meaning the more you make, the higher your benefit, to a point. Initial benefits are typically calculated using up to 35 years of wages. Earnings from earlier years, when workers were young, are adjusted to reflect the change in general wage levels that occurred during their years of employment.
Tinkering with the benefit formula can save big money, but cuts to initial benefits mean lower monthly payments for the rest of a retiree's life. The average monthly benefit for a new retiree is $1,264.
Option: Change the calculation for initial benefits, but only for people with lifetime wages above the national average, which is about $42,000 a year. Workers with higher incomes would still get a bigger monthly benefit than lower paid workers but not as big as under current law. It's a cut they would feel throughout their entire retirement. This option would eliminate 34 percent of the shortfall. Two years ago, it would have eliminated almost half.
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Associated Press writer Andres Gonzalez contributed to this report.
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Keep up with the AP Social Security series on Twitter: http://apne.ws/NRmPSQ
Follow Stephen Ohlemacher on Twitter: http://twitter.com/stephenatap
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Online:
How would you fix Social Security? http://hosted.ap.org/interactives/2012/social-security/
Gold, Silver & Copper Are All Heading Lower: Elliott Wave Analyst By Jeff Macke |
"I'm bearish across the board in the metals," says Jeff Kennedy, Chief Commodity Analyst at Elliott Wave International. "I'm looking down in gold, down in silver, and down in copper." He lays out his case in the attached video, starting with the precious metals.
Gold and Silver
Kennedy dismisses the muted efforts of gold and silver to regain last year's momentum as classic corrective wave patterns. "Essentially the moves that we've seen the last few weeks, the last few months, are very indicative of a larger down-trending market," he explains.
Once he sees confirming price action, specifically a break below last week's lows in gold, Kennedy wants to get short. The analyst's favorite ways to play the dark side on gold and silver are via the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV).
Copper
The news is no better for copper bulls. In fact, it's much worse if you buy into the idea that "Dr. Copper" is a tell for the rest of the economy. Based on his wave work, Kennedy says copper is heading not just lower, but down as much as 55% to $1.50. This would take copper near lows last seen during financial meltdown of 2008, when global growth crumbled.
Kennedy's favorite short play off copper is Freeport-McMoRan (FCX). The copper and gold miner has the same chart characteristics as copper as well as a specific trigger point for the short. "Take out $30 a share in Freeport," he says, "and nothing's holding it up until you fall to $10."
Tuesday, August 21, 2012
Why Apple’s Milestone Is “Not That Amazing”
By Stacy Curtin | Daily Ticker
Another major milestone for Apple (AAPL) on Monday when it became the most valuable publicly traded company ever (before adjusting for inflation).
The tech stock ended the day up 2.63 percent to close at $665.15 a share, giving it a market capitalization of $623.52 billion. The stock is up more than 60 percent in the last year. Its market capitalization has doubled in the last 19 months.
In early trading Tuesday the stock was up another 6 percent to $671 a share.
Apple surpassed Microsoft's $616.34 billion market capitalization record set in 1999. However, after Apple eclipsed Microsoft's all-time high, many critics pointed out that Apple's blockbuster-figures have not been adjusted for inflation. Its stock price would need to top $900 in order to exceed Microsoft's record market value in real terms, which has been calculated by some analysts to be $850 billion.
Apple's achievement is "astounding," says The Daily Ticker's Aaron Task in the accompanying video, noting that Apple is currently worth more than Microsoft, Intel and Google combined while the number two most valuable company, ExxonMobil (XOM), trails Apple's valuation by more than $200 billion. "It is staggering, staggering stuff that I haven't seen in my years covering the market — any single company having this much value relative to the rest of the other major mega-caps out there," he says.
But our Henry Blodget is not that surprised by Apple's accomplishment for two key reasons:
Inflation increases the value of all companies over time.
Apple's mega-earnings support its valuation.
"It is actually not amazing that Apple is worth $623 billion," says Blodget, adding the company is reasonably valued because the stock is trading at 13 times earnings. He notes that Apple is delivering on earnings in all major product lines, including the iPhone, iPad and to a lesser extent the Macbook.
Apple's recent run-up in stock price — even after its lackluster earnings report last month due to lack of demand for its current iPhone — is largely attributed to the growing anticipation for the iPhone 5, which is rumored to be released Sept. 12.
"This quarter is going to be terrible…because we are in the waning days of the iPhone 4S and everybody is focused on the iPhone 5," says Blodget. If the company delivers on the new phone, it is clear sailing ahead for the rest of the year, but if the phone is a disappointment, "look out below," he says as more than half of Apple's revenues come from iPhone sales.
But Apple could still have a banner year. Consumers and investors are highly anticipating the company's release of the iPad mini and a new Apple TV. Plus, the last three months of the year include the holiday shopping season, which is always good for the company's bottom line.
Tell us what you think! Does Apple's valuation surprise you?
Thursday, August 16, 2012
China's Largest Broker Plunges on Loss Rumor
Shares of Shanghai-listed Citic Securities, China's largest brokerage firm, fell by 9.1 percent on Monday after rumors the company had suffered a large 2.9 billion yuan ($460 million) loss on overseas trading.
But a spokesperson for the company denied the rumors and told CNBC that reports the company's chairman had been arrested by the police were also untrue.
The drop in Citic's shares also affected other brokers on Monday with shares of Haitong Securities falling 8.6 percent. Reuters reported that traders were worried over earnings in the latest quarter.
Citic securities reports results on August 30th and the firm is currently in a quiet period, during which it cannot discuss its financials.
Dickie Wong, Executive Director of research at Kingston Securities said he had not been able to confirm any of the rumors and that investors would have to wait for a filing with the Hong Kong Exchange for more details.
Wong told CNBC that the shares of China's brokerages were no longer that attractive based on price-to-earnings ratios when compared to the major bank stocks. He said mainland-listed bank stocks were trading at valuations of between 5 and 6 times forward earnings. On the other hand, shares of Citic Securities are trading at 21 times forward earnings.
Chinese authorities have been trying to boost confidence in the country's stock market by allowing increased foreign participation. But pessimism over stocks has persisted, hurting brokers. The Shanghai Composite has fallen 13 percent from the year's peak and trades at just over 9 times earnings.
- By CNBC's Deepanshu Bagchee@DeepBagchee
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
America's Energy Seen Adding 3.6 Million Jobs Along With 3% GDP
On the eastern bank of the Mississippi River, about an hour upstream from New Orleans, the outline of Nucor Corp. (NUE)'s new $750 million iron-processing plant is rising between fields of sugar cane and sweet gum trees.
Surveying the facility from the road, Michael Eades, president of Ascension Economic Development Corp., says it's part of a wave of investment lured by low natural gas prices to this stretch of Louisiana's industrial riverfront. Companies such as Westlake Chemical Corp., Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc. and Methanex Corp. (MX) have projects in the works. Ormet (ORMT) Corp. reopened an alumina refinery last year, bringing back 250 jobs.
"We're just seeing an incredible amount of activity," said Eades, who tallied $1.1 billion in new projects last year in Ascension Parish alone, where his private, nonprofit group promotes development. He expects twice that this year.
It's a harbinger of a nationwide investment boom spreading from the oil fields of North Dakota and the Marcellus gas shale in Pennsylvania to power plants in California and chemical refiners in Texas. A surge in U.S. natural gas development has spurred $226 billion in spending plans on pipelines, storage, processing facilities and power plants, most slated for the next five years, according to Industrial Info Resources, a market- intelligence provider in Sugar Land, Texas.
U.S. energy supplies have been transformed in less than a decade, driven by advances in technology, and the economic implications are only beginning to be understood. U.S. natural gas production will expand to a record this year and oil output swelled in July to its highest point since 1999. Citigroup Inc. (C) estimated in a March report that a "reindustrialization" of America could add as many as 3.6 million jobs by 2020 and increase the gross domestic product by as much as 3 percent.
Narrow Gains
So far, the economic benefits have been confined to states such as Louisiana, Texas and North Dakota, while the national jobless rate has stayed above 8 percent for 42 straight months in the wake of the worst recession in seven decades.
"It is definitely a positive for the economy, but one can overstate how much of a positive," saidMichael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Oil and gas production account for about 1 percent of gross domestic product, and will have a limited impact on the country's unemployment, he said.
Even so, there are signs the economic gains have begun to expand beyond the oil and gas fields and that the promise of abundant, low-cost fuels will give a competitive edge to industries from steel, aluminum and automobiles to fertilizers and chemicals.
Jobs Debate
That would provide a boost to a U.S. manufacturing sector that has lost 5.12 million jobs since 2001 and become the focus of a national debate over how to revive factory employment. Manufacturers have added 532,000 jobs since January 2010 as the economy started to recover, Bureau of Labor Statistics data show.
The expansion of fossil-fuel production -- coupled with a weak economy and increased energy efficiency -- has helped the U.S. pare its crude oil imports by 17 percent since the 2005 peak, Energy Department data show. Imports in 2011 accounted for 45 percent of U.S. consumption of crude and refined products. The department predicts the share will fall to 39 percent next year, which would be the first time since 1991 that imports dropped below 40 percent of demand.
"The impact on the global petroleum market and the natural gas markets is really palpable and wildly underestimated," said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. who led the team that wrote the March report. The economic activity that comes with higher energy production will boost incomes, increase consumption and create wealth, he said.
Cheaper Energy
Increased production and swelling domestic stockpiles have helped make U.S. energy cheaper than in other countries. U.S. oil futures have slid to a $20 a barrel discount to London- traded Brent, a benchmark for more than half the world's oil. Natural gas in the U.S. fell to $1.902 per million British thermal units in April, the lowest in a decade. The fuel costs almost three times as much in the U.K. and more than five times as much in Japan.
"This is one of those rare opportunities that every country looks for and few ever get," said Philip Verleger, a former director of the office of energy policy at the U.S. Treasury Department and founder of PKVerleger LLC, a consulting firm in Carbondale, Colorado. "This abundance of energy gives us an opportunity to rebuild our economy."
Cycle of Growth
Verleger envisages a virtuous cycle of economic growth as producers, flush with cash from oil and gas sales, will buy more equipment and put more people to work, while low-cost energy puts cash back in consumers' pockets, stimulating spending.
Companies plan to invest $138 billion in more than 700 natural gas storage, pipeline and processing plants in the U.S., and another $88 billion in more than 500 gas-fired power generation units, according to Joseph Govreau, vice president and editor-in-chief of Industrial Info Resources. The firm tracks projects from planning stages through construction.
The IIR estimates don't include petrochemical and fertilizer projects, which are undergoing a revival because of the low cost of natural gas feedstock.
Cairo-based Orascom Construction Industries (OCIC) is investing $250 million restarting an ammonia and methanol plant in Beaumont, Texas. Another Orascom subsidiary may build a $1.3 billion fertilizer plant in Iowa that would create as many as 2,000 construction jobs and 165 permanent positions, according to Tina Hoffman, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Economic Development Authority.
‘Massive' Investment
"The amount of petrochemical investment that the U.S. will have in the next 10 to 15 years is massive," said Omar Darwazah, head of investor relations for Orascom. "Given the shale gas boom, gas prices in the U.S. are arguably more competitive than the Middle East, because you don't have the political risk."
Increased U.S. production has already wrought significant shifts across the energy industry. Plans for gas-import terminals, thought indispensable five years ago, have been shelved in favor of export facilities such as Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG)'s $10 billion plant in Louisiana's Sabine Pass.
Enterprise Product Partners LP and Enbridge Inc. this year reversed the Seaway pipeline that once carried oil imports from the Gulf Coast to a storage hub in Oklahoma. Now, it carries crude produced in states such as North Dakota and Colorado to refiners in Texas and Louisiana, which process and, increasingly, export it. East Coast refiners, dependent on more expensive tankers of foreign crude, are working to develop rail links and pipelines to bring oil east.
Environmental Concern
Environmentalists say cheap fossil fuels come with a high price, including air pollution that can cause respiratory difficulties, and drinking water contamination from hydrofracturing, or fracking, in which a high-pressure stream of fluid is shot underground to crack rock and release hydrocarbons. Lower gas and oil costs have also undermined investment in power sources that produce less carbon dioxide, including wind, solar and nuclear, raising concern that climate change will accelerate.
"The state is just overjoyed at all the jobs that will be coming to Louisiana without looking at the health side effects and environmental side effects," said Darryl Malek-Wiley, a community organizer at the Sierra Club in New Orleans.
The report from Citigroup -- "North America, the New Middle East?" -- estimated that the U.S. could become the world's largest producer of crude and natural gas liquids such as propane by 2020, overtaking Russia and Saudi Arabia.
China Consumption
U.S. natural gas prices may eventually rise if planned export terminals increase demand for the fuel, putting domestic consumers in competition with foreign markets willing to pay more. China will drive global gas consumption higher by 2.7 percent a year through 2017, the International Energy Agency said in a June report. The U.S. already competes with global consumers for refined products such as gasoline and diesel.
Still, the promised bounty from lower prices can be seen along the highways and back roads of Ascension Parish, in the heart of Louisiana's plantation country.
In November, cheap natural gas prices convinced Hannibal, Ohio-based Ormet to reopen the refinery that makes alumina, used in aluminum production. The facility was shuttered in 2006, said Chief Financial Officer James Riley.
In nearby St. James Parish, Nucor has begun construction on the plant that will process iron using natural gas. The product will supply its steel mills, said Katherine Miller, a spokeswoman for Charlotte, North Carolina-based Nucor. Five hundred people will be needed to build the plant and 150 will be employed there once completed, she said.
Doubling Workforce
Eades gestures toward construction trailers parked on the site where Vancouver-based Methanex said in July that it will reconstruct a plant moved from Chile, white, football field- sized domes that will store Nucor's iron ore, and chutes that carry bauxite over the Mississippi River levy into Ormet's rust- colored plant.
All this construction means new jobs. MMR Group, a Baton Rouge-based industry contractor, will double its workforce of 2,800 in the next two years, said Grady Saucier, vice president of marketing.
A five-minute drive from MMR's offices in Ascension Parish, Associated Builders & Contractors, a trade group, can't keep up with demand for its training program for would-be electricians, pipefitters and welders. Steven Allen graduated from the school's pipefitting certification program this year. Now, he earns as much as $28 an hour working in petrochemical plants, up from the $9 an hour he made as a construction laborer.
Family Struggle
"Being a laborer and a helper isn't going to cut it when you've got a family to support," said Allen, 30, a father of 6- year-old twins.
Smaller businesses, including valve manufacturers, electric-motor companies and rental lots packed with heavy equipment, also feed off the boom, Eades says. One company, Rain for Rent, provides fake downpours seen on movie sets -- as well as storage tanks and water pumps to the petrochemical industry.
Closer to Interstate 10, which connects New Orleans to Baton Rouge, a TownePlace Suites by Marriott and a Holiday Inn Express have opened in the past year next to an outlet mall and a Cabela's outfitters store, all benefiting from the influx of new workers to the region, Eades said.
"If you have gas prices in the U.S. that are substantially cheaper than Europe or Asia, it has to have a substantial impact," said James Brick, an analyst in Houston with Wood Mackenzie , an energy and metals researcher. "The question we're now asking is, ‘Is this the tip of the iceberg?'"
To contact the reporter on this story: Asjylyn Loder in New York at aloder@bloomberg.net.
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dan Stets in New York at dstets@bloomberg.net.
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